© AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin/Evan Vucci

More than 14 million Americans have already cast their ballots with two  weeks to go before Election Day, according to NBC's early voting tracker.

The 2024 race for the White House remains a toss-up, but there’s been undeniable movement toward former President Trump in public polling.

• Trump has overtaken Vice President Harris for the first time in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ election forecast. While Trump’s 52-48 advantage is negligible, the trend line has moved steadily in Trump’s favor since the beginning of the month, when Harris held a 55-45 advantage.
  
  
• Trump leads 53 percent to Harris's 47 percent in Nate Silver’s election model. He also leads 54 to 46 in The Economist’s latest forecast, marking a 6-point jump over the past week. Again, these numbers are scarcely better than a coin toss, but the trend is in Trump’s favor.
  
  
• Trump overtook Harris in the 538 average of Pennsylvania for the first time. If Trump wins the Keystone State, his odds of winning the White House skyrocket.
  
  
• The national polls have also tightened. Harris leads Trump by 1 point in the latest USA Today survey. She led by 5 points in the previous poll.

Still, the polling in all of the swing states remains within the margin of error. 

• A 2020-style polling miss, which underestimated Trump’s support, could result in every swing state going his way.
  
  
• A 2022-style polling miss, which underestimated Democratic support, could result in every swing state going Harris’s way.

Here are the latest averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, alongside the number of people who have already voted in each state, according to NBC's early vote tracker:

GA: Trump +1.1 (1.4 million)

MI: Trump +0.6 (1 million)

NV: Tied (136,000)

NC: Trump +0.9 (1 million)

PA: Trump +0.3 (800,000)

WI: Tied (300,000)

Harris will have a massive money advantage for the final two weeks. The vice president raised an astonishing $222 million in September, out-raising Trump by more than a 3:1 margin. Trump raised $63 million.

Harris’s strategy is clear — she’s hunkering down in the "Blue Wall" states and pressing for moderate conservatives and former Republicans to join her campaign.

• Harris will pull the trifecta Monday, campaigning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
  
  
• Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is campaigning with Harris in all three states as she seeks to win over disaffected Republicans.

Trump lashed out at Cheney on TruthSocial, pressing on a sore spot of Harris’s by tying the Cheney name to the chaos in the Middle East, which is a major liability for Harris in Michigan.

“War Hawk, Liz Cheney, who, like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go to War in the Middle East, also wants to go to War with every Muslim Country known to mankind ... If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to War, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge.”

Harris will be joined by former President Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama at separate events later in the week.

One person we’re not expecting to see with Harris: President Biden, who Harris is keeping at arm’s length, at least for now.

"Mine will not be a continuation of the Biden administration," Harris said in Malvern on Monday. "I bring to it my own ideas, my own experiences."

Trump’s final strategy is also coming into view ...

He’s aiming for big viral moments that tap into his populist appeal, underscored by his photo-op working at a McDonald’s drive-through; his appearance at the Sunday night football game in Pittsburgh; and his upcoming rally at Madison Square Garden.

Trump will also look to press his advantage in the Sun Belt states this week.

• Trump visited the Tarheel State, where he viewed damage from Hurricane Helene in Asheville earlier Monday and plans to hold a rally in Greenville Monday night. In his remarks in Asheville, Trump broke with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) by calling for Congress to return for a special session to pass hurricane relief funding. "This is a very unusual situation, and I would be in favor of it," Trump said.
  
  
• Trump also bashed the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), reiterating claims that hurricane relief money had gone to illegal immigrants. The White House has said that FEMA draws money from separate programs for hurricane relief and sheltering migrants.
  
  
• Trump will hold another rally Tuesday in North Carolina, before heading off to Georgia and Nevada later in the week.

If Trump sweeps the Sun Belt battlegrounds, he'd likely only need to win one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania for an Electoral College victory.

• In Georgia, where more than 1 million people have already voted, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R-Ga.) shot down claims made by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who seized on reports about a county experience an issue with its machines to make unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.
  
  
• “We’re going to respond quickly to these sorts of things in 2024 because it’s not supported by the facts,” Raffensperger said on NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday”. “The equipment’s working. We’ve done all sorts of audits since the last election and coming up to this election.”

The campaigns are doing everything they can to bank early votes.

• Trump surrogate Elon Musk, who is the richest man in the world, is paying registered voters in swing states to sign a petition announcing their support for the Constitution. He’s also giving out $1 million a day to a random signor between now and Election Day.

Is that legal? 

• It’s illegal to pay people to vote or to register to vote. Some election experts believe Musk's scheme is illegal, even if he’s not directly paying people to vote.
  
  
• Democrats certainly don’t like it. “I think there are real questions with how he is spending money in this race. How the dark money is flowing, not just into Pennsylvania but apparently now into the pockets of Pennsylvanians,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) said Sunday on NBC News’s “Meet the Press.” “That is deeply concerning.”
  
  

???? Perspectives:

The Wall Street Journal: Trump has the edge, for now.

The Hill: A look at the swing voters who will decide the presidential election.

The Liberal Patriot: Both parties have the opportunity to build dominant electoral coalitions.

Read more:

• Harris makes last-ditch appeal to disenchanted Republicans.
• Harris steps up negative attacks on Trump.
• Trump, Harris appeal to Christian voters.
• Polls edge toward Trump: Where the swing states stand.
• Harris and Trump’s most likely paths to victory.
• GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy.

Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

• A House panel found that law enforcement missed "pivotal moments" to engage the Trump gunman in Butler, Pa. The panel found the assassination attempt should have been "preventable."
  
  

• The U.S. is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents on Israel's attack plan against Iran. The White House says President Biden is "deeply concerned" about the leak.
  
  

• Freed American Paul Whelan opens up about his life inside a Russian labor camp.

©  AP Photo/Marc Levy

The pitched battle for control of the House and Senate is growing tighter by the day. Potential for upsets abounds across the map.

The latest:

• The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Pennsylvania Senate race from “Leans Dem” to “Toss Up,” as Republican Dave McCormick closes in on Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). Republicans have thrilled over McCormick’s ads this cycle and believe he has run a savvy campaign. Casey appears to be feeling the heat, featuring former President Trump in a recent ad to reach independent and undecided voters.
  
  
• All three of Senate races in “Blue Wall” states are now toss-ups, according to Cook.
  
  
• Cook moved the Nebraska Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” as Sen. Deb Fischer (R) faces a spirited challenge from independent Dan Osborn, the tattooed former union leader aiming for a historic upset that could complicate the GOP's efforts to win a Senate majority. The top super PAC supporting Republicans is plowing $3 million into the race, another sign that Fischer is vulnerable.
  
  
• In Montana, Democrats and outside groups refuse to give up on Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), even as polls show Republican Tim Sheehy pulling ahead. Democrats are keeping tens of millions of dollars in ad buys for Tester on the airwaves through Nov. 5 in hopes he can pull an upset, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports. The balance of power in the Senate likely hinges on whether Tester and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) can win reelection in states that Trump is expected to win handily.
  
  
• Electric vehicles are proving to be a flashpoint in the battle for the Senate in Michigan, the automotive capital of the U.S. Via The Hill’s Rachel Frazin: “Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.) has put Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) on defense, frequently bashing both her and the Biden administration on the issue and trying to tie Slotkin to an 'EV mandate.' Meanwhile, Slotkin has sought to toe a fine line — supporting investment in electric vehicles while saying she does not support a mandate that everyone drive them.”

Read more:

• Five takeaways from a fiery Wisconsin Senate debate.
• Family politics roils key Texas state race.

©  Greg Nash

• What will Democrats do first if they win a majority the House? The Hill’s Mychael Schnell and Mike Lillis sat down with Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), the Democratic whip, who said that a voting rights bill will be a top priority.
  
  
• The Hill’s Aris Folley details how Congress’s to-do list is growing as lawmakers are back home running for reelection. Among the top priorities upon their return: Replenishing the Small Business Administration’s disaster loans program; potentially providing more money to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) disaster relief fund; funding Veterans Affairs; and finishing up their annual funding work after passing a stopgap bill that keeps the government running until Dec. 20.
  
  
• Republicans are in court challenging overseas ballots in two critical battleground states. The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld reports: “State election officials are pushing back, insisting they are complying with legal requirements and warning the lawsuits are part of a broader campaign to sow the seeds for post-election challenges.”
  
  
• A county official in rural Arizona pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor after acknowledging delaying the vote canvass in 2022. 
  
  
• Seven people were killed over the weekend when a bridge collapsed on Georgia’s Sapelo Island. President Biden said he was “heartbroken” to hear about the deaths that resulted from a ferry dock collapsing.
  
  
• Three judges in Tennessee issued an injunction that temporarily protects doctors from being disciplined for performing medically necessary abortions in the state. The injunction came in response to a lawsuit filed more than a year ago seeking to stop Tennessee’s abortion ban and require officials to clarify the “medical necessity exemption” under the current law.

"America is entering a new economic super-cycle," by Linette Lopez for Business Insider.

"Can the media survive?," by Charlotte Klein for Intelligencer.

"The trials of Daniel Penny," by Olivia Reingold for The Free Press.

15 days until Election Day.

91 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Tuesday

• Harris is interviewed by NBC's Hallie Jackson.
• Trump holds a rally in Greensboro, N.C. He'll return to Doral, Fla., for a Latino roundtable and a virtual town hall with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.

There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@thehill.com

You're all caught up! Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend this newsletter to others: TheHill.com/Evening. See you tomorrow.