Jim Bowden’s contract projection and best team fits for Max Fried

The biggest storyline of the Braves offseason is undoubtedly going to be Max Fried’s free agency.

Following Atlanta’s World Series in 2021, Freddie Freeman left in free agency. Then, in 2022, Dansby Swanson followed suit. Now, Braves Country is bracing for the loss of another fan favorite.

Fried finished the 2024 campaign with a 3.25 ERA and 1.164 WHIP across 174.1 innings. It was far from his best season, but it was still an All-Star caliber campaign, a testament to his consistent dominance year after year. Few pitchers across the league can hold a candle to Fried’s success over the last half-decade, especially left-handed pitchers.

One of the best southpaws over the last five seasons will have no shortage of suitors this offseason. He’s likely in line for a contract north of $150 million, which is right in line with what Jim Bowden of The Athletic believes he’ll garner, predicting Fried’s next contract will be six years for $174 million.

Bowden’s best team fits for Fried are the Braves, Red Sox, and Orioles. Ironically, I did a piece on Fried’s potential landing spots, with Boston and Baltimore being the most ideal if the Braves cannot retain him. They’re American League clubs, and they’re both fun teams that will give Fried a chance to continue competing in October.

However, Bowden and every Braves fan would be kidding themselves if they thought those were the only potential suitors. Every club with the money and a need for a starter will be in the Max Fried sweepstakes. That includes the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, and seemingly every other Braves rival.

For that reason, I think Bowden’s six-year, $174 million is a little low. In a vacuum, that’s a fair number and probably an accurate projection, but a bidding war will certainly ensue for the top arms on the free agent market, which will inevitably drive the price up.

In that same breath, we saw what happened last winter with a couple of Scott Boras clients who held owners’ feet to the fire, or at least tried to. They settled well below their market value and short-term contracts. Boras doesn’t represent Fried, so it’s not as likely.

Where Max Fried lands this offseason is unclear, but some team is going to make him a very rich man this winter.

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