Playoffs?!?! Can James Franklin Mess This One Up?
Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images How They Got Here No one is really surprised to see #7 seed Penn State in the College Football Playoff first round. James Franklin’s squad is the avatar of the team that never stood a chance to make it into the four team iteration but will likely 11-1 or 10-2 its way into the new twelve team affair annually without ever truly being a threat to win the thing. And so it came to pass that the Nittany Lions finished 11-2 with losses to Ohio State and Oregon and were universally hailed as the 7th to 10th best team in the nation, as they have been since time immemorial. But you could have have gotten some pretty choice odds during the preseason that the #11 SMU Mustangs would be waiting for them there. The Pony Express got here by dodging most of the “toughest” that the ACC had to offer in SMU’s first season in the league on the way to an 11-2 record. Key Matchups Drew Allar versus the SMU pass rush. Alarm leads a Nittany Lion offense that’s more potent than it appears. In 13 games, he has completed 224 of 324 passes (69.1%) for 2,894 yards and 21 touchdowns versus 7 interceptions. Allan threw three touchdowns in the 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game. In that game Allar completed 20 of 39 passes for 226 yards. In a 49-10 win at Purdue on Nov. 16, he completed 17 of 19 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Allar is a big (6’5, 238) pocket passer who can push the ball downfield if given time. And that may be the rub. SMU leads the ACC and is 5th nationally with 40.0 sacks on the season. Six different Mustangs have recorded multiple sacks on the year. If Allar can handle the pressure, and stay upright and in the game despite the punishment he’a likely to take, the Nittany Lions will be okay. If he can’t? Well, that could be a big issue. Penn State’s backup QB Beau Pribula already entered the transfer portal, has already taken visits to UCF, Mizzou, and Ole Miss, and has been averaging right at ten snaps per ballgame this season (he’s more of a running threat than the USS Allar). In fact, the only other Nittany Lion besides Allar and Pribula who has thrown a pass this season is tight end Tyler Warren (more on him below). Again, Allar must be protected, and must protect himself. 2. The Nittany Lions receiving corps against itself. Allar’s favorite target by a mile is the aforementioned senior tight end Tyler Warren. Warren has 88 receptions for 1,062 yards (12.1 yards per catch) and 6 touchdowns. He has also rushed 23 times for 191 yards and 4 touchdowns. In the loss to Oregon, Warren caught 7 passes for 84 yards, including a long of 28. Warren is, in short, an absolute weapon. The problem is that he doesn’t have a lot of company. Warren’s 88 receptions are more than double the next highest total for a Penn State receiver on the season (39 by junior receiver Harrison Wallace, III). Warren and Wallace’s combined 1700 receiving yards are more than half the team’s overall total. In short, if SMU can neutralize Warren, this one could get pretty interesting. Prediction: SMU has given up touchdowns on 68% of their red zone defensive drives. That’s among the highest percentages among playoff teams (UGA gives up a TD 47.5% of the time opponents get inside the 20s). Tyler Warren is a red zone weapon. Occam’s Razor would dictate that Penn State gets the ball to Warren and turns it into points, while an SMU offense that struggled against a physical Clemson defense struggles to score points against a similarly physical Nittany Lion unit. Your final score: Penn State 31, SMU 20. Go ‘Dawgs!!!
How They Got Here
No one is really surprised to see #7 seed Penn State in the College Football Playoff first round. James Franklin’s squad is the avatar of the team that never stood a chance to make it into the four team iteration but will likely 11-1 or 10-2 its way into the new twelve team affair annually without ever truly being a threat to win the thing. And so it came to pass that the Nittany Lions finished 11-2 with losses to Ohio State and Oregon and were universally hailed as the 7th to 10th best team in the nation, as they have been since time immemorial.
But you could have have gotten some pretty choice odds during the preseason that the #11 SMU Mustangs would be waiting for them there. The Pony Express got here by dodging most of the “toughest” that the ACC had to offer in SMU’s first season in the league on the way to an 11-2 record.
Key Matchups
- Drew Allar versus the SMU pass rush. Alarm leads a Nittany Lion offense that’s more potent than it appears. In 13 games, he has completed 224 of 324 passes (69.1%) for 2,894 yards and 21 touchdowns versus 7 interceptions. Allan threw three touchdowns in the 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game. In that game Allar completed 20 of 39 passes for 226 yards. In a 49-10 win at Purdue on Nov. 16, he completed 17 of 19 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Allar is a big (6’5, 238) pocket passer who can push the ball downfield if given time.
And that may be the rub. SMU leads the ACC and is 5th nationally with 40.0 sacks on the season. Six different Mustangs have recorded multiple sacks on the year. If Allar can handle the pressure, and stay upright and in the game despite the punishment he’a likely to take, the Nittany Lions will be okay.
If he can’t? Well, that could be a big issue. Penn State’s backup QB Beau Pribula already entered the transfer portal, has already taken visits to UCF, Mizzou, and Ole Miss, and has been averaging right at ten snaps per ballgame this season (he’s more of a running threat than the USS Allar). In fact, the only other Nittany Lion besides Allar and Pribula who has thrown a pass this season is tight end Tyler Warren (more on him below). Again, Allar must be protected, and must protect himself.
2. The Nittany Lions receiving corps against itself. Allar’s favorite target by a mile is the aforementioned senior tight end Tyler Warren. Warren has 88 receptions for 1,062 yards (12.1 yards per catch) and 6 touchdowns. He has also rushed 23 times for 191 yards and 4 touchdowns. In the loss to Oregon, Warren caught 7 passes for 84 yards, including a long of 28. Warren is, in short, an absolute weapon.
The problem is that he doesn’t have a lot of company. Warren’s 88 receptions are more than double the next highest total for a Penn State receiver on the season (39 by junior receiver Harrison Wallace, III). Warren and Wallace’s combined 1700 receiving yards are more than half the team’s overall total. In short, if SMU can neutralize Warren, this one could get pretty interesting.
Prediction: SMU has given up touchdowns on 68% of their red zone defensive drives. That’s among the highest percentages among playoff teams (UGA gives up a TD 47.5% of the time opponents get inside the 20s). Tyler Warren is a red zone weapon. Occam’s Razor would dictate that Penn State gets the ball to Warren and turns it into points, while an SMU offense that struggled against a physical Clemson defense struggles to score points against a similarly physical Nittany Lion unit. Your final score: Penn State 31, SMU 20.
Go ‘Dawgs!!!
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